Mr Forex

Proteksi Kerugian Dengan Memperhatikan Divergen

2008-02-10T06:05:00.000-08:00

Using Divergences to Keep Out of Bad Trades

The American Football season just came to an end with my team getting close to the
championship but falling short again. I am a big fan of the Indianapolis Colts and we keep having
a groundhog day season year after year but it is still fun to watch. We have one of the better
quarterbacks in the league named Peyton Manning who is renowned for his hard work ethic as
well as his mental and physical ability on the field.

One of the things he is known for is beginning each play with up to three possible plays to run
and trying to switch into the best one at the line of scrimmage based on the formation that the
defense of the other team is in prior to the ball being snapped. He will check out the other team
and then let his team know what the play will be using different code words and hand signals.
This is called an audible for you International readers.

When he is done calling the play and the ball is snapped they do their best to execute the play
and move the ball forward. When the audible results in a good play everybody loves the
quarterback and says how great and smart he is. When the play turns out poorly or if he has a
series of poor plays he is the biggest sham in the league and everybody cant understand why he
just doesn’t go up and just start the play instead of changing it every time.

Manning’s philosophy regarding making so many play changes is that he doesn’t want to waste a
play. If the original play that the coaches called doesn’t look like it will work against the formation
the defense is showing he will switch out of it into a higher percentage play. I for one am happy to
have that asset on my team as are the coaches. When you watch other teams play without such
capability you see a lot of wasted plays.

Well, we as short-term traders have similar tools that we can use to keep us out of wasted trades
and they are called divergences. I locate the divergences I use with a MACD indicator but the
idea is applicable to most indicators. Many systems have been designed based on divergences
alone and they can be quite successful.

The way I use divergences is mostly as a warning system. Divergences tell me two things about
possible market conditions. First is that the trend I am following could be coming to an end. The
second is that the trend I am following may be a very strong trend and possibly worth milking for
a large trade.http://wattstrading.com/images/NDX_Divergence.JPG

Every trend will end in a divergence on some time frame the question is what do you do about it. I
follow a trend following system usually in my short-term futures trading. Those who follow my
scalping system know that there are a series of rules that need to be met before a trade is
entered. Approximately 70% of the time that those rules are met and a trade is entered it will be a
winner. There are times though that a trade is doomed from the beginning just because it is
fighting a divergence that is telling us that the trend is coming to an end. It is hard to incorporate
divergences into a rule set because by nature they are more subjective and not everyone will
see them.

One way to improve the results of any trading system is by becoming aware of divergences and
when they come along make a discretionary decision not to take a trade setup.

Lets assume we are using a basic trend following system where we buy or sell short pullbacks to
a 21-period simple moving average on a daily chart based on whether the price is above or
below the moving average. Below is a chart of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX).

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

We can see in late April the price closed below the 21-sma at which point using the system we
might be waiting for a pullback in order to get SHORT the market. If we follow the system blindly
we would sell blindly at the end of May when price worked its way back up to the moving average.
That trade would quickly turn into a loss as the price advances over the 21-sma. If however we
noticed that the MACD formed a positive divergence we would have the choice to not take the
SHORT trade and wait for another trade. That particular setup is not the best example since the
period where the divergence set up is rather short but the idea still holds.

We next see how the price advances steadily in June before pulling back to the moving average
and allowing a LONG trade. At the end of the LONG trade another divergence is formed warning
us of a possible trend change. That being the case we have the option to not take the next trade
which also would have been a loser. Price declines in July and pulls back to the moving average
in August setting up a SHORT trade. It too formed a divergence with MACD at the end of the
trade which led to an extended advance through the rest of 2005.

In the beginning phases of that extended advance a negative divergence was formed which did
lead to a penetration of the moving average, however brief, but not a trend change. This is the
second information that we can learn from divergences. When there is a clear divergence and a
trend change does not occur then there is a strong possibility that a strong extended trend is
underway.

Us traders of the 1-minute NQ see this all the time when we are in runaway mode. There can be
divergences all the way up the advance and the thing to learn from the information is that there
is more safety in finding a place to get on the trend rather than picking a top or bottom whatever
it may be.

The extended trend in the chart example eventually does end with a divergence in December but
only after several more smaller divergences throughout the year. This chart or theoretical system
may not provide the best example but I think there is something useful in learning how to
recognize divergences that can keep us out of poor trades. Here are a few of my observations
regarding divergences. Hopefully they can be of some use to you.

1. MACD Divergences are most reliable when they cross the zero line in between the peak
and the failure peak. Such as the two in June and August in the chart.
2. When you take a divergence signal and trade counter trend and end up getting stopped
out there is a good chance that a strong trend is underway. Change your thinking of trying to find
a top or bottom and see if there is a place to get on board the trend. The worst that can happen
is that you will be wrong, but getting onboard a runaway trend early is worth the risk. (provided
your system allows for such trading)
3. A MACD divergence on a time frame five times higher than your time frame is hard to
overcome and it can feel like a battle trying to trade against it.
4. Allowing a trade to pass because of a divergence and having that trade work out the way
it was suppose to anyway is not really a terrible thing. (see number 2). We should not place too
much mental weight on any one trade but instead look at the collection as a whole.

Recognizing and applying divergence discretion to your trading system can be a valuable tool
and worth the time and effort to learn. I hope you and your families have a great week. Trade
well!

Currency Corelation

2008-02-02T11:46:00.001-08:00

a href="http://www.mataf.net/analyse-correlation_MarketVsMarket.htm"><img src="http://www.mataf.net/cache/graphes/3e9a1daaabaf99abf43545096a03b3b7.png" width="300" height="200" border="0" alt="Correlation des devises" /></a>

2008-01-28T22:25:00.001-08:00

Pada saat ini GBP sdh membentuk wave ke 5, siap siap sell

AUS Dolar moves

2008-01-20T11:05:00.001-08:00

Australian Dollar: Heading For a Big Move
The Australian dollar has been one of the best performing currencies over the past few years thanks to strong demand for
commodities, rising gold prices, solid economic data and a weaker US dollar. However as good as Australian fundamentals
may be, there is an ancillary factor that has caused the Australian dollar to sell off aggressively over the past week and
that is risk aversion. The Australian dollar is setting up for a big move and the direction that it may be headed in may
surprise most traders.
Running out of Economic Fuel
The primary source of growth for the Australian economy has been demand for commodities like gold, wheat, zinc and beef
among a long list of others. Many of these goods were destined for booming Asian economies like China, whose growth
rates have breeched double digit gains. However, the strength of the export sector may soon lose its momentum. While
prices for raw materials may act as a temporary crutch, prices have begun to turn. Global growth has started to cool
according to the IMF, which lowered its forecast for annual growth from 5.2 percent to 4.7 percent, but most importantly,
the Baltic Exchange Dry Index which is a strong leading indicator for global inflationary pressures and commodity demand
plunged to the lowest level in 6 years.
Everyone knows that the Australian dollar has a strong correlation with gold prices, but do they know that gold prices are
correlated with the BDI? The relationship between the Baltic Dry Index and gold prices can be seen in the chart below,
courtesy of InvestmentTools.com. Over the past week, we have already seen a drop in gold prices, but it is clear that the
BDI tends to be a leading indicator for gold. The BDI measures the cost of shipping different commodities around the world
and if demand to ship is strong, the price for shipping these raw materials increase but if demand is weakening, the price
falls. The recent drop in the BDI is our first indication that commodity hungry countries like China and India are no longer
immune to the slowdown in the US.
Even with the export sector out of service though, the Australian economy could theoretically survive on internal
momentum. However, domestic growth trends may be fading just as quickly as the broader global trends. Business
spending (initially supported by exports and latter funding the consumers’ rise) dropped 6.5 percent over the third quarter
- the sharpest drop in nearly eight years. At the same time, the consumer sector - the largest in the economy - may be
reigning in their consumption habits. Even though the latest retail sales report was strong, for the January reading, the
Westpac consumer confidence survey fell the most in 14 months, while the gauge measuring Aussie’s outlook for the year
ahead plunged 20 percent. This dramatic rise in pessimism has been driven by increases in lending rates along with tighter
lending standards, stifling increases in gasoline prices, a sharp correction in stocks and a general dour outlook on growth. If
consumers decide it’s time to pack it in, it wouldn’t take long for growth to cool.
High Yields Become a Liability Rather Than an Asset
Another major buttress for the Australian dollar has been its high yield. Last year, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the
overnight lending rate twice to an 11-year high 6.75 percent. What’s more, RBA policy makers have yet to turn dovish like
so many of their international counterparts. However, even if the central bank holds its high benchmark rate steady, the
appeal of the Aussie dollar may still fade. The Australian currency has enjoyed a significant bid through the carry trade
whereby traders sell lower yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and buy high yielders like the Aussie dollar. This
strategy had become very popular over the years, but there was a catch: its popularity and success are highly correlated to
low volatility conditions where the carry trade can make its steady income without the threat of capital losses. Markets
have been anything but calm over the past six months. After a subprime lending explosion in the US led to massive losses in
the world largest banks, turmoil in global credit markets and the beginning of a global turn in interest rates, all assets
associated with risk saw dramatic increases in volatility. With many of the components of higher volatility only worsening,
the outlook for the carry trade and the Australian dollar isn’t promising.
For a more in depth, fundamental outlook on the Australian dollar, check out our AUDUSD 2008 forecast.
Technicals Also Point to the Possibility of a Major Top
Currencies have freely floated since the early 1970s and since then the AUDUSD has traced out a perfect Elliott wave
pattern. The basic pattern that governs all free markets is the 5-3 pattern. That is, 5 waves in one direction are followed
by 3 waves in the other. It is obvious that the AUDUSD decline from 1.4885 (1973) to .4775 (2001) unfolded in 5 waves.
Similarly, the advance from .4775 unfolded in 3 waves. The rally ended right at .9400 (psychological level). It is likely that
the rally from .4775 is just the first leg in a larger more complex advance from the 2001 low. Why? The decline from 1973
took 27 years and the advance has lasted a little over 6 years. Still, this chart suggests that that the next big move is down
-- to at least .7633 (38.2% of the rally from 2001) and probably lower.
One reason to favor the idea that a multi-year top is already in place at .9400 is that wave C (from .6771) within the A-B-C
advance from .4775 can be counted as an ending diagonal (where waves 1 and 4 overlap). Extending a line from the top of
wave 1 that is parallel to a line drawn off of the bottoms of waves 2 and 4 pinpoints the top of wave 5. A channel as
perfect as this strengthens the argument that a significant top is in place.
240 Minute Chart of AUDUSD 01-18-2008
If the bearish count is the correct count, then wave a third wave down may be about to begin. While this count is far from
perfect, it is possible. Given the longer term bearish implications from the monthly and weekly charts, this count should be
respected. A drop below
.8682 (black line) would strengthen the bearish bias. If that does occur, then risk can be kept to .8880.
Note: The AUDUSD may be in the early stages of a bearish cycle but AUDNZD looks bullish! This suggests that NZDUSD will
fall more than AUDUSD (AUD will gain relative to NZD). See AUDNZD for more on this idea.
Discuss the outlook on the AUDUSD with Jamie and other traders in the Elliot Wave thread of the DailyFX forum.
Written By: John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst and Jaimee Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact John or Jaime about this or other articles they author, email them at jkicklighter@dailyfx.com or
jsaettele@dailyfx.com

US Dollar moves

2008-01-20T11:01:00.000-08:00

FOMC JUNE 2007

2007-06-28T19:46:00.000-07:00

Federal Reserve Meeting: What to Expect for the US Dollar
Wednesday, 27 June 2007 13:25:25 GMT
Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS | Previous articles
Previous Articles

* Jun 28 - How To Trade US Personal Income Using EURUSD
* Jun 28 - Instant Insight - Federal Reserve Still Worried About Inflation
* Jun 27 - Federal Reserve Meeting: What to Expect for the US Dollar
* Jun 26 - British Pound: Does Blair Resignation and BoE Pose a Bigger Risk for a Top or a 26 Year High?
* Jun 25 - Dollar Clawed By Bear-New Risk in The Buck?
* Jun 22 - Will Sub-prime Mean Disaster for Currency Markets?
* Jun 21 - Ask Your Questions to Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg
* Jun 21 - Trade the German IFO Report with the EURUSD
* Jun 20 - EURGBP - Prepare for Big Bull Move
* Jun 19 - Will The Fed Leave Rates At 5.25% Even If Housing Slows Growth Further?
* Jun 18 - USDJPY Breakout Could Test 128.00 in Coming Weeks
* Jun 15 - GBP/USD - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade
* Jun 15 - FXCM SSI: Euro Long Positions Rise By Nearly 15 Percent
* Jun 14 - FX Market: Could The Bank Of Japan Move Earlier Than Expected?
* Jun 13 - US Senate Takes Aim At Chinese Yuan: Is This The Beginning?
* Jun 12 - Forex Update: Which Central Banks are Still Raising Interest Rates?
* Jun 12 - Japanese Yen Could Gain If The BOJ Proves To Be Hawkish This Week
* Jun 11 - New Zealand Currency Intervention: Is it Enough to Kill the Carry Trade?
* Jun 11 - EURUSD: 1.3680 Top Confirmed With Break of 1.3364
* Jun 08 - EURJPY and the Dow - Separated at Birth

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Federal Reserve interest rate announcements have traditionally been big market movers for the US dollar. However in recent months, the market moving-ness of this event risk has been downgraded significantly since the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has become as predictable as the passage of time.

This Thursday, the Federal Reserve is fully expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent, which would mark a full year since they last raised interest rates. The economic outlook is cloudier this month than last, which means that we could also see a larger currency market reaction. Of course that movement will not be triggered by the rate decision but instead by the accompanying FOMC statement. The key phrases to watch are the ones in reference to the housing market and inflation. A bigger focus on housing market problems will most likely lead to more pronounced dollar weakness against the Euro than the Japanese Yen because the market anticipates another interest rate hike from the European Central Bank this year while shorting USD/JPY would require paying a hefty interest. By the same token, if the tone of the statement remains unchanged, expect USD/JPY to benefit more than the Euro.

For those who want to lay on currency trades going into the meeting, it is important to examine how the economic landscape or data has changed since the last monetary policy meeting in May:

US Economic Data: How Have Things Changed Since the Last Meeting?

FOMC062707_A1

FOMC062707_B

As indicated in the data tables above, although theUS consumer continues to keep the economy going by increasing their spending, income growth has been falling. The widening gap between income and spending should be very discouraging for all economy watchers including the Federal Reserve. Despite a stronger labor market, higher stock prices and lower gasoline prices, consumer confidence hit a 10 month low in June. The deterioration in the housing market and the rise in bond yields or mortgage rates have pinched the pocketbooks of US consumers. Whether the dollar will rise or fall on Thursday will now be dependent upon how bad the Federal Reserve thinks the housing market is doing as well whether they believe that core inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” Consumer and producer prices were both up in the month of May and based upon the recent increase in corn and dairy prices as well as the mild change in the US stock market, the Federal Reserve is not likely to loosen their leash on inflation. They know that if they even hinted at the possibility of being less hawkish, the Dow would aim towards 14,000. Although higher stock prices are good for the consumer, the higher the stock market rises the sharper it will fall if the housing market troubles worsen. At this point, the Federal Reserve does not have much choice other than to keep the tone of the statement unchanged in order to tame the stock market bubble.

FOMC Statement: Lines to Watch

When looking at the FOMC statement, the market typically looks for every new word that has been included and excluded from the statement. In the last meeting, there were just a handful of changes. The Fed acknowledged that there was weakness in growth in the “first part of the year,” injected some question as to whether the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace and confidently acknowledged that core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Their predominant policy concern at the time was still “the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.” The combination of a weak dollar and record average gasoline prices gave the Fed no choice but to continue to lean harder on inflation. Although growth data warrants more cautionary comments, the Fed will most likely wait for a few more weeks of data to ensure that the deterioration in growth is continuing before they drastically change the tune of their statement. Their next monetary policy meeting is in early August. Team Bernanke has often put inflation ahead of growth and for the time being, we do not expect this to change. The futures curve is not pricing in a rate cut at all this year. Keeping interest rates steady and the statement unchanged will be taken positively by the foreign exchange market, which could lead to a resumption of the uptrend in USD/JPY. A surprisingly neutral or dovish statement on the other hand will send the EUR/USD back towards its all-time highs. Either way, be prepared for some active trading on Thursday.

Comparing the FOMC Statements

May 9, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.

March 21, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

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Life Cycle Bullis

2007-06-20T03:52:00.001-07:00

An anatomy of the Stock Market! - Bull & Bear Market Cycles

In financial markets, the “majority is always wrong.” When the investing majority or the crowd is overly bearish, this is the best time to be buying stocks. When the crowd is overly exuberant, this is the time to be selling stocks. The financial markets work in this ironic way because not everyone can win in the market.

The Start of a Bull Market

The bottom of the market starts at a time when the stock market is weak and the general population is pessimistic. At this point most investors sell after having endured a long and torturous bear market. This extreme pessimism found at a bottom is always irrational and undeserved. Now the market is undervalued and is a bargain. Savvy investors, the “smart money”, buy bargain stocks knowing that they will be able to sell them higher in the near future. Smart money buying, called accumulation, causes stocks to rise.

The smart money often consists of operators, and corporate insiders (promoters of companies). These traders have access to information that the general public does not.

Rising stocks eventually gain the respect of institutional investors, as billions of dollars of capital is introduced into the market place. Mutual fund investment causes the stock market to advance in a powerful manner. Much of the steady large trends are powered by institutional investors. After the stock market has gained, stocks are now fairly valued and are no longer considered bargains. The smart money is now sitting on a large profit, as well. The average investor is still skeptical, however.

As bull market events unfold, retail investors begin to take interest in stocks. Retail investors, or the unsophisticated little guy, make up the vast majority of investors. This group does not invest for a living. Retail investors often make investment decisions based on what they read in financial magazines, from their brokers and from tips from friends. As the flood of retail capital is invested, the market soars, causing great euphoria. At this point in the cycle, many companies become public, or launch an IPO. Companies go public when investor sentiment is most optimistic so as to gain the highest possible stock price. IPO’s generate even more optimism as unsophisticated investors buy into the fallacious thoughts of instant riches. Now is the time when many small investors become wealthy. In this phase, stocks are doubling and tripling as the media cheers on the advancing bull market.

At this point, the smart money sells, or distributes, the now overvalued stocks to overconfident retail investors. The smart money knows that overvalued stocks are no longer worthy investments, and will soon drop in value. Widespread greed always occurs, in some form, at stock market tops. Sometimes this greed takes form as stock market scams and fraud. These immoral activities can take place because irrational retail investors will buy a stock simply because it is glamorous. To compound the problems, investors will now start to use margin, or leverage, to further accelerate gains. All caution is thrown to the wind as investors think “the old rules don’t apply”.

The Start of a Bear Market

After mutual funds and retail investors are fully invested, the market is overbought. This means that there is no more cash to fuel the rally. The market can only go in one direction: down. All it takes is just a hint of negative news and the market collapses under its own weight. Investors quickly realize the market is made of smoke and mirrors, as frauds or other scams come to light.

When panic selling starts, a market will always fall quicker than it had risen. Oftentimes, as everyone heads for the exit at the same time, there isn’t anyone willing to buy the stock. This can be especially disastrous for margin users as they grow deeply indebted to their brokers. Bankruptcy is the usual result for these foolish gamblers. The majority of retail investors don’t sell even as the market is plummeting. This crowd keeps holding on to stocks in hopes that the market will recover. As the market plummets 25%, then 50% the average retail investor foolishly holds on, in complete denial that the bull market is over. Finally retail investors sell every stock they own plummeting the market even further. This mass exodus is called capitulation.

The Cycle Starts Again

It is at this point that stocks are undervalued once again. The smart money is accumulating and stocks rise. The majority of retail investors bought at the top and sold at the very bottom. This is the very essence of the “dumb money”. They are perpetually late into the game. This cycle continues over and over. Only the smart money actually “buys low and sells high”. After trading in this manner, the dumb money will adhere to adages such as, “the stock market is risky”. In reality, however, the stock market is only risky if you trade like the mindless majority!

Learning Proces

2007-06-19T18:50:00.001-07:00

Study Skills Self-help Information

Online Study Skills Workshops

Time Management Strategies for Improving Academic Performance

Seven Strategies for Improving Test Performance

Increasing Textbook Reading Comprehension by Using SQ3R

Strategies for Improving Concentration and Memory

Study Skills Inventory

Time Scheduling Suggestions

Where Does Time Go?

More Information on Time Scheduling

Acronyms

Study Skill Checklist

Concentration - Some Basic Guidelines

Control of the Study Environment

Note Taking - The Cornell System

Editing Lecture Notes

How to Read Essays You Must Analyze

Constructive Suggestions Regarding Motivation

Note Taking and In - Class Skills

Proofreading
Remembering
SQ3R - A Reading/Study System
Strategies to Use with Difficult Questions
Study Environment Analysis
Vocabulary: An On Going Process
Writing Papers

History of Forex

2007-06-13T16:52:00.000-07:00

The Bretton Woods Agreement

In 1967, a Chicago bank refused a college professor
by the name of Milton Friedman a loan in pound sterling because he had intended to use the funds to short the British currency. Friedman, ho had perceived sterling to be priced too high against the dollar, wanted to sell the currency, then later buy it back to repay the bank after the currency declined, thus pocketing a quick profit. The bank's refusal to grant the loan was due to the Bretton Woods Agreement, established twenty years earlier, which fixed national currencies against the dollar, and set the dollar at a rate of $35 per ounce of gold.

M. Friedman

The Bretton Woods Agreement, set up in 1944, aimed at installing international monetary stability by preventing money from fleeing across nations, and restricting speculation in the world currencies Prior to the Agreement, the gold exchange standard--prevailing between 1876 and World War I--dominated the international economic system. Under the gold. exchange, currencies gained a new phase of stability as they were backed by the price of gold. It abolished the age-old practice used by kings and rulers of arbitrarily debasing money and triggering inflation.

The Bretton Woods Agreement

But the gold exchange standard didn't lack faults. As an economy strengthened, it would import heavily from abroad until it ran down its gold reserves required to back its money. As a result, money supply would shrink, interest rates rose and economic activity slowed to the extent of recession. Ultimately, prices of goods had hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, which would rush into buying sprees that injected the economy with gold until it increased its money supply, and drive down interest rates and recreate wealth into the economy. Such boom-bust patterns prevailed throughout the gold standard until the outbreak of World War I interrupted trade flows and the free movement of gold.

After the Wars, the Bretton Woods Agreement was founded, where participating countries agreed to try and maintain the value of their currency with a narrow margin against the dollar and a corresponding rate of gold as needed. Countries were prohibited from devaluing their currencies to their trade advantage and were only allowed to do so for devaluations of less than 10%. Into the 1950s, the ever-expanding volume of international trade led to massive movements of capital generated by post-war construction. That destabilized foreign exchange rates as set up in Bretton Woods.

The Agreement was finally abandoned in 1971, and the US dollar would no longer be convertible into gold. By 1973, currencies of major industrialized nations became more freely floating, controlled mainly by the forces of supply and demand which acted in the foreign exchange market. Prices were floated daily, with volumes, speed and price volatility all increasing throughout the 1970s, giving rise to new financial instruments, market deregulation and trade liberalization.

In the 1980s, cross-border capital movements accelerated with the advent of computers and technology, extending market continuum through Asian, European and American time zones. Transactions in foreign exchange rocketed from about $70 billion a day in the 1980s, to more than $1.5 trillion a day two decades later.

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The Euromarket

A major catalyst to the acceleration of Forex trading was the rapid development of the eurodollar market; where US dollars are deposited in banks outside the US. Similarly, Euromarkets are those where assets are deposited outside the currency of origin. The Eurodollar market first came into being in the 1950s when Russia's oil revenue-- all in dollars -- was deposited outside the US in fear of being frozen by US regulators. That gave rise to a vast offshore pool of dollars outside the control of US authorities. The US government imposed laws to restrict dollar lending to foreigners. Euromarkets were particularly attractive because they had far less regulations and offered higher yields. From the late 1980s onwards, US companies began to borrow offshore, finding Euromarkets a beneficial center for holding excess liquidity, providing short-term loans and financing imports and exports.

London was, and remains the principal offshore market. In the 1980s, it became the key center in the Eurodollar market when British banks began lending dollars as an alternative to pounds in order to maintain their leading position in global finance. London's convenient geographical location (operating during Asian and American markets) is also instrumental in preserving its dominance in the Euromarket.

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Forex Link

2007-06-13T06:47:00.000-07:00

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Trading melelahkan dan Memuaskan

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Ini trading yang sangat melelahkan .Sell GY memakan waktu hampir sebulan...

Trade Friday's NFP Report With The EURUSD

2007-06-06T19:44:00.000-07:00

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Trade Friday's NFP Report With The EURUSD
Thursday, 31 May 2007 15:01:18 GMT
Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS | Previous articles
Previous Articles

* Jun 06 - EURUSD - Trade of Record Low Volatility by Hedging
* Jun 06 - EUR/USD - Ready to Rally Through 1.3680
* Jun 05 - Euro and ECB Rate Outlook Hinge on Trichet's Commentary
* Jun 05 - Chinese Stock Markets Collapse: Watch out for Moves in the Dow, Carry and Chinese Yuan
* Jun 04 - Dollar - Going Nowhere Fast?
* Jun 01 - USD/CHF - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade
* Jun 01 - EUR/GBP - Hedging Strategy of the Week
* Jun 01 - We Answered Your Questions!
* May 31 - Trade Friday's NFP Report With The EURUSD
* May 31 - USDCAD - Sentiment Index Calls for More CAD Strength. Is Parity Possible?
* May 30 - Chinese Stock Markets Collapse, Dow Moves Limited: Chances for a Yuan Free Float Increases
* May 30 - Has USD/CAD Reached A Bottom?
* May 29 - Euro Strength Will Hinge On Whether The ECB Signals More Hikes Next Week
* May 29 - DailyFX Dynamic Carry Trade Basket: Gains in NZD, AUD and GBP positions offset by losses in CHF and HKD
* May 28 - Dollar Grinds Higher- Does it Have More Left?
* May 25 - AUD/NZD - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade
* May 24 - EURUSD Retail Traders Have Been Short Euros For the Past Seven Months
* May 23 - AUD/USD - Continuing Lower Towards .8130
* May 23 - EUR/USD - Hedging Strategy For 100 pips in Potential Profit
* May 22 - China Invests In Blackstone Group - Is It Only The Beginning?

Written by David Rodriguez, Currency Analyst

Trading the News: US Non-Farm Payrolls

What is Expected
Time of release: 06/01/2007 12:30 GMT, 08:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : EUR/USD
Expected: 140K
Previous: 88K

TTN2007.05.31.img1

TTN2007.05.31.img2

How To Trade This?

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report is one of the most market-moving economic releases on the calendar, promising volatility regardless of the outcome. Last month’s report proved to be marginally dollar-bearish, but overall Greenback resilience forced the EURUSD lower through subsequent weeks of trading. Increasingly narrowed focus on overall US employment growth leaves dollar bulls hoping that NFP’s will surprise to the topside. Yet an improvement in NFP’s is far from a foregone conclusion; disappointments in this week’s ADP Employment Change and similar jobs data may leave risks to the downside ahead of the report.

Given expectations of a strong NFP gain, the dollar may have difficulty rallying in the absence of a notable surprise to the topside. A strong May print and an unchanged or upwardly revised April figure would clearly be the most Greenback-bullish outcome, providing a signal to go short the EURUSD on confirmation of a bearish reaction at 08:35 EST (12:35 GMT). Stops should be set above preceding swing-highs, while profit taking will be at the trader’s discretion. If the initial 5-minute move is especially pronounced, it may be difficult to achieve a 1:1 stop-loss to profit target ratio on this trade. This makes it that much more important to watch for signs of imminent reversal through the following hours of trade.

Bullish predictions for the coming NFP report leave ample room for disappointment with risks weighed to the downside for the US dollar. A below-consensus April print and an unchanged or downwardly revised March number would be the most dollar-bearish scenario, providing a clear signal to go long the EURUSD on confirmation of a rally at 08:35 EST (12:35 GMT). Stop limits shall be set at preceding swing lows, while profit targets will remain at the trader’s discretion. If the initial move is particularly pronounced, it may be difficult to achieve a 1:1 stop-loss to profit-target ratio—reinforcing the importance of monitoring the trade.

TTN2007.05.31.img3
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EUR/USD - Ready to Rally Through 1.3680

2007-06-06T19:40:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD - Ready to Rally Through 1.3680

Wednesday, 06 June 2007 18:50:13 GMT

Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS | Previous articles

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

**The Top/Bottom strategy is published every Wednesday on dailyfx.com. Updates and additional ideas are published everyday on FXCMTR, available to FXCM clients.

The advance from 1.1640 is either in the final stages of an extended 5th wave (from 1.2482) or has completed an a-b-c-X-a-b-c (labeled W-X-Y) correction at 1.3680. The reason that we favor the former interpretation is due to the 3 wave setback from 1.3680 to 1.3392. As long as 1.3392 remains intact, it is our view that the EURUSD will work higher (in a 5th of a 5th) to test trendline resistance just above 1.3680. We are confident enough in the pattern to get bullish now, against 1.3449 (just below the 61.8% of 1.3392-1.3552 at 1.3453), targeting 1.3680 (since we expect a reversal following a new high, we do not want to push our luck). Move to breakeven on a rally through 1.3552.


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Trade of Record Low Volatility by Hedging

2007-06-06T19:15:00.000-07:00

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EURUSD - Trade of Record Low Volatility by Hedging
Wednesday, 06 June 2007 19:53:51 GMT
Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS | Previous articles
Previous Articles

* Jun 06 - EURUSD - Trade of Record Low Volatility by Hedging
* Jun 06 - EUR/USD - Ready to Rally Through 1.3680
* Jun 05 - Euro and ECB Rate Outlook Hinge on Trichet's Commentary
* Jun 05 - Chinese Stock Markets Collapse: Watch out for Moves in the Dow, Carry and Chinese Yuan
* Jun 04 - Dollar - Going Nowhere Fast?
* Jun 01 - USD/CHF - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade
* Jun 01 - EUR/GBP - Hedging Strategy of the Week
* Jun 01 - We Answered Your Questions!
* May 31 - Trade Friday's NFP Report With The EURUSD
* May 31 - USDCAD - Sentiment Index Calls for More CAD Strength. Is Parity Possible?
* May 30 - Chinese Stock Markets Collapse, Dow Moves Limited: Chances for a Yuan Free Float Increases
* May 30 - Has USD/CAD Reached A Bottom?
* May 29 - Euro Strength Will Hinge On Whether The ECB Signals More Hikes Next Week
* May 29 - DailyFX Dynamic Carry Trade Basket: Gains in NZD, AUD and GBP positions offset by losses in CHF and HKD
* May 28 - Dollar Grinds Higher- Does it Have More Left?
* May 25 - AUD/NZD - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade
* May 24 - EURUSD Retail Traders Have Been Short Euros For the Past Seven Months
* May 23 - AUD/USD - Continuing Lower Towards .8130
* May 23 - EUR/USD - Hedging Strategy For 100 pips in Potential Profit
* May 22 - China Invests In Blackstone Group - Is It Only The Beginning?

Written by Antonio Sousa, Currency Analyst

§ Currency Pair: EUR/USD

§ Entry Zone: Go both long and short at the market if the price is at any level within the 1.3450-1.3550 range

§ Protective Stop: Long stop below 1.3390 and short stop above 1.3610

§ Profit Target: Long Target at 1.3550 and Short Target at 1.3450

§ Profit Potential: 100 pips (excluding transaction costs and slippage)

The most effective way to capitalize on currencies pairs that are trapped in tight ranges is through the use of hedging. The hedging feature is currently available on all accounts using FXCM’s No Dealing Desk service. For more information on FXCM hedging strategies please visit http://www.fxcm.com/hedging.jsp

hedging_June6

The EUR/USD is our primary target for hedging in the week ahead, with clear range-bound trade and concrete support and resistance levels. To hedge, go both long and short at the market if price stays within the above Hedging Zone. Take profits at R1 for longs and at S1 for shorts, covering losses above R2 or below S2.

More Low Risk Hedging Opportunities - Currencies that are Ranging

Currency

% ATR Rank

Stop for Long

Hedging Zone

Stop for Short

Profit Range

EURCHF

|||||| 0.34%

1.6320

1.6413

1.6533

1.6613

120 pips

EURGBP

||||||||| 0.44%

0.6668

0.6750

0.6870

0.6961

120 pips

GBPCHF

|||||||||||| 0.49%

2.4050

2.4175

2.4309

2.4437

134 pips

EURUSD

|||||||||||| 0.50%

1.3390

1.3450

1.3550

1.3610

100 pips

GBPUSD

||||||||||||| 0.55%

1.9589

1.9822

1.9997

2.0135

175 pips

Medium Risk Hedging Opportunities - Currencies that are Volatile

Currency

% ATR Rank

Stop for Long

Hedging Zone

Stop for Short

Profit Range

EURAUD

|||||||||||| 0.65%

1.5595

1.6000

1.6200

1.6476

200 pips

USDCAD

||||||||||||| 0.66%

1.0450

1.0550

1.0640

1.0740

90 pips

AUDUSD

||||||||||||| 0.70%

0.8068

0.8168

0.8357

0.8457

189 pips

CHFJPY

||||||||||||| 0.71%

97.82

98.82

99.78

100.78

96 pips

USDCHF

||||||||||||| 0.72%

1.2075

1.2150

1.2238

1.2354

88 pips

High Risk Hedging Opportunities - Currencies that are Trending

Currency

% ATR Rank

Stop for Long

Hedging Zone

Stop for Short

Profit Range

EURJPY

|||||||||||||| 0.75%

159.61

162.40

164.00

165.00

160 pips

USDJPY

||||||||||||||| 0.77%

119.53

120.53

122.13

123.13

160 pips

GBPJPY

||||||||||||||||| 0.88%

238.50

240.00

241.50

243.00

150 pips

AUDJPY

|||||||||||||||||| 0.91%

99.00

100.00

102.50

103.50

250 pips

NZDUSD

||||||||||||||||||| 0.97%

0.7150

0.7403

0.7550

0.7650

147 pips

NZDJPY

||||||||||||||||||||| 1.22%

87.00

89.01

91.00

93.00

199 pips

Rules for the Hedging Radar

1) Entry Zone -> Go both long and short at the market if the currency is at any level within the Hedging Zone.

2) Profit Taking ->Target for the long order is the top of the entry zone, for the short order is the bottom of the entry zone.

3) Stop Levels are Key Support and Resistance Points -> Place the actual stops a few pips above the higher level and a few pips below the lower level. The break of these levels signals that the ranges have been broken and the hedging strategy should no longer be implemented.

4) The lower the Average True Range, the Less Risky the Currency is for Hedging.

**How is the % ATR Rank Calculated?

The average true range is the 90 days moving average of the currency’s true range. The true range is the greatest of: the difference between the current high and the current low; the difference between the current high and the previous close or the difference between the current low and the previous close.

The %ATR is the relative value of the ATR when weighted against the price. For example, if the ATR for the EURGBP is 26 pips then the %ATR is 0.4 percent since 0.0026/0.6602 = 0.4% where 0.6602 is the quoted price of the EURGBP.

For more information on FXCM hedging strategies please visit http://www.fxcm.com/hedging.jsp

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New Releases

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Baby Ticker - The Baby Countdown Pregnancy Ticker	19,400
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2007-06-02T21:31:00.001-07:00

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Preview Details Global Giving

Direct your readers to Global Giving projects that you find compelling.

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Share favorite events and memories with family and friends using OurStory’s really cool scrolling interactive timeline.

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Preview Details Contactify Widget (beta)

The Contactify widget (beta) works with the Contactify.com service, allowing you to receive messages without ever revealing your email address.

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Make any list of movies on spout.com (Favorites, 5 star, Most hated etc).

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SmartMatch is a fast and easy way for you to add engaging content from leading publishers to your blog and earn money!

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Preview Details Amazon Latest & Greatest (widgizit.com)

Display Amazon bestsellers and new releases (books, movies, music, more). Get paid through the Amazon Associates program!

Avg. Rating:	(3)
Subscriptions:	68
Date Added:	May 28, 2007
Developer:	Widgizit

New Releases

Live Sport TV	6/2/07
Slyxie's Automatic Game Box	6/2/07
Seventies Music	6/2/07
Nineties Music	6/2/07
Eighties Music	6/2/07
See more new releases…

Most Popular

Baby Ticker - The Baby Countdown Pregnancy Ticker	19,400
Pacman	5,901
Countdown Clock	3,572
Google Audio Widget	3,166
Accord Weather	2,821
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BookCrossing Catch/Release Widget
Star Wars: The Legacy Revealed Countdown Clock
Workcircle's Job Widget
IGIZMORE
Amie Street Sidebar Player
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Majalah Dan Tabloid

2007-06-02T21:28:00.000-07:00

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Aneka Yess
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June 2007

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28 May 2007

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Juni 2007

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28 May 2007

8 Days
24 May 2007

SWAsembada
24 Mei 2007

Gatra
24 Mei 2007

Kawanku
21 Mei 2007

Femina
24 Mei 2007

Trust
21 Mei 2007

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25 Mei 2007

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21 Mei 2007

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4 Mei 2007

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14 Mei 2007

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17 Mei 2007

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May 2007

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Drunken Master 16

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17 Mei 2007

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Mei 2007

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Mei 2007

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Mei 2007

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30 April 2007

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Mei 2007

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Mei 2007

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3 Mei 2007

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23 Maret 2007

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Februari 2007

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22 Februari 2007

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No.5 Maret 2007

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1 Maret 2007

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1 Maret 2007

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April 2007

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28 Maret 2007

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May 23, 2007

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May 14, 2007

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At cepeceng.com, we carry majalah Femina, majalah Kawanku, majalah Aneka Yess, majalah Ayah Bunda, majalah Cosmopolitan, majalah Komputer Aktif, majalah Angkasa, majalah Swa, majalah Gadget. Cepeceng.com is a online site for majalah and magazines from Indonesia. Baca majalah disini, online.

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My Campus

2007-05-28T20:01:00.000-07:00

Course of the Week

BSc (Hons) Nursing

Student Biog

A light-hearted interactive personality test based on chance, a recreation of Ice Age cave art, and an animation about one character’s hunt for his lucky red sock are among the prize-winners in Abertay University’s Computer Arts Degree Show 2007 ...
CLICK FOR FULL STORY

Realtime Worlds Ltd (RTW), one of UK’s leading independent video game developers, has become a key sponsor of Dare to be Digital ...
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Managing The Digital Enterprise

2007-05-28T19:21:00.000-07:00

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About the site:

Welcome to
Managing the Digital
Enterprise®, an open
educational resource
that surveys the opportunities and
challenges managers
face in an increasingly
digital world.
Learn more

Helpful links:

Listen to the course
podcast at the
iTunes Music Store

Note for instructors

Announcement:

We are accepting
applicants for the
M.S. in Analytics,
a 10-month
professional degree at
NC State University
Learn more

New additions:

The Impact of Web 2.0
and Emerging Social
Network Models
World Economic Forum

Web-scale Computing
Services at Amazon.com
Jeff Bezos

TECHNICAL_ANALYSIS

2007-05-28T19:15:00.000-07:00

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Indicators

Most indicators highlight a particular aspect of price or volume behavior. Newcomers often attach mystical significance to their favorite indicators but none are infallible. When using indicators:

Select a small number of indicators (2 or 3) and use them to confirm signals from each other;
Study their behavior until you know them well. Indicators are like a carpenter's tools - skilled use can produce excellent results, unskilled use may lead to injury.
Select indicators that complement each other and are not based on the same data. For example: three indicators based on closing price will tend to confirm each other; while indicators based respectively on closing price, volume and trading range will often conflict and are therefore more reliable when they do confirm each other.
Use a trend indicator in a longer time frame than the cycle being traded (e.g. if trading the secondary cycle, use a 150-day moving average to indicate the direction of the primary trend). Only trade in the direction of the trend signaled.

Indicator Categories

Price/volume indicators

As the name suggests, these are based on price and/or volume.

Trend indicators, such as moving averages, are used to indicate the direction of a trend;
Momentum indicators measure the speed at which price is changing;
Volume Indicators are used to confirm the strength of trends;
Volatility Indicators confirm price behavior.

Market indicators

Used to summarize activity in the entire market or in a particular sector, market indicators include:

economic indicators (such as interest rates),
sentiment indicators (such as the ratio of bullish to bearish investment analysts), and
price/volume indicators applied to the market as a whole.

Visit Reading The Market for an overview of techniques used to track market direction.

Indicators A - Z

A complete list of indicators is displayed in the left margin.

Economic Book...eBiz.co.uk

2007-05-28T19:07:00.000-07:00

A Web site for students and educators in business studies, economics, accounting, leisure, sport & recreation and travel & tourism.

The Brain and Choice (24 May)

What goes through your head when buying a drink from the newsagents? Subconsciously, you are deciding on any number of issues. Those who study consumer behaviour are looking to understand all these millions of thought processes.

Takeover Mania? (09 May)
It seems everyone's at it these days - merging, acquiring, and all other shenanigans to do with company takeovers. It keeps the stock market bumping along nicely. But what about those poor souls in the middle of it all - the employees?

Holiday Representatives 1 (01 May)
What are your impressions of life as a holiday rep? Do you think the the job involves lounging around in hammocks during the day, then going out partying at night? Far from it, apparently...

The Name Game (26 Apr)
What's the name of your favourite team's stadium? It's becoming increasingly likely that it has the same name as your favourite crisps or sportswear... Sponsorship in sports is big business - but what are the pros and cons?

Series	Date	Subject
Mind your Business	14 May	The Brain and Choice »
At your Leisure	28 May	Life in Mars? »
Wanna Argument?	05 Mar	Which Way the Wind Blows »
Research Project	07 Nov	The Business of Making Music »
Problem Based Learning	07 May	Takeover Mania? »

New and updated lesson plans this week:

Energy Policy (25 May)
The government has produced a white paper on the future energy needs...

Business Strategy (24 May)
Students in business studies exams (and many of you reading this will...

Mr Forex

Proteksi Kerugian Dengan Memperhatikan Divergen

Currency Corelation

AUS Dolar moves

US Dollar moves

FOMC JUNE 2007

Life Cycle Bullis

Learning Proces

Study Skills Self-help Information

History of Forex

Forex Link

Trading melelahkan dan Memuaskan

Trade Friday's NFP Report With The EURUSD

EUR/USD - Ready to Rally Through 1.3680

EUR/USD - Ready to Rally Through 1.3680

Wednesday, 06 June 2007 18:50:13 GMT

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TECHNICAL_ANALYSIS

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Related Topics

Economic Book...eBiz.co.uk